Recent Marquette Poll Explained – Is Walker Really Leading Barrett?

[From SLUE]:

The most recent Marquette poll showing Walker leading Barrett 50-44 left many scratching their heads.

After all, we are a purple state evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. A closer look at the poll’s crosstabs reveals an overrepresentation of conservatives. Given this skewed polling universe, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the poll showed Walker leading. Also, the survey was limited to likely voters. It discounts the more than 200,000 people who signed the petition to recall Walker that didn’t vote in 2010, a key contingency that could swing the election.

Don’t let the polls fool you. We all know that the election will be a nail-biter decided by 2 points or less. Every vote will count and it is up to us to make sure our friends, families and neighbors get out to vote on June 5 and support Tom Barrett to reclaim Wisconsin.

A closer look at poll is explained in this thorough blog post: http://bdgrdemocracy.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/the-may-marquette-franklin-poll-what-did-we-learn/
from our friends at the Badger Democracy Blog. Here are some excerpts about the May polling:

* The population models result in suburban Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington counties) being over weighted by about 15%, and the statewide vote being under weighted by as much as 30%. The upstate, non-urban vote is largely under-represented. The highly conservative collar counties of Milwaukee are over-represented.

* The current May poll also results in a 5% higher response from Republican identifying voters, with 5% lower independents. This has not been the case in every Marquette poll. In general, it is fair to say the poll, over the past 5 months, has leaned slightly GOP, with May being an anomaly – for several reasons.

* While every other poll from January-April have adjusted for age, the May poll did not.

* The picture of the respondent that influenced this vote can be seen by the fact that married respondents were over weighted by 6%, while all single groups were under weighted by about 20%.

* The “voter” that influenced this poll was most likely the younger, married, white male that lives in a collar county of Milwaukee – leaning Republican.
The author goes on to remind us that polls give us a picture in time of a group of voters. In random sampling, just as flipping a coin, you can have a period of time when you get five or six “heads” in a row. If you flip the coin enough, the result will “regress to the mean” of about 50%. The May poll is an example of that reality. Taking the last five MU polls into account, and the trend, the picture is clear:

This will be a very close election, decided by two points or less. It is all about turnout. Walker and the GOP are relying on big money and a huge propaganda machine – walking the line of legality. Dems and progressives are relying on grassroots, boots on the ground. If progressives achieve our biggest turnout ever, Walker loses. That is the bottom line.

The path to victory is clear. Get out the vote – every union household, rural, minority, progressive, women, teachers, and democratic voter in the state must get to the polls on June 5th. If that is accomplished – Scott Walker will not be Governor on June 6th

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Only Little People Pay Taxes

We owe a debt to Diane Hendricks for fawningly elicting the Divide & Conquer statement out of Walker while practically wanting to give him a fench kiss. But beyond that she is the billionaire posterchild for shillionaire Walker and his fealty to the plutcratic 1% who benefit from a rigged system they've devised and paid for.

Kruella DeHendricks wants to crush unions and working people to feed her greed, because people like her can never get enough. Yet she has $500,000 to throw at Walker to work her will on the people of Wisconsin. And on top of it all her corporate personhood, the ABC Supply company pays no taxes to support the system that acts as its host and from which it extracts its profits. In nature, such a creature is called a parasite: http://www.wisconsinsfuture.org/

I guess not much has changed since Leona Helmsley said "Only little people pay taxes". Except perhaps that the little people are finally waking up and standing up!
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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-05-13

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Divide and Conquer

Thank you, Kevin Mulvenna for another amazing contribution to our blog!

 

Walker Lies! Admits “Divide & Conquer!” from Kevin Mulvenna on Vimeo

And you can watch a longer version on You Tube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1iDctZ2hJg

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Walker Uses $100M of OUR Money to Fight Recall!

We're broke says Walker, that is until the game is up and the recall is coming for him. Then suddenly $100M of the citizen's money magically appears to invest in Milwaukee, something Walker FAILED to do as the County Exec who closed his own office of Economic Development during the Great Recession! http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/09/scott-walker-using-100-million-of-taxpayer-money-to-fight-off-recall/
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Walker Uses $100M of OUR Money to Fight Recall!

We're broke says Walker, that is until the game is up and the recall is coming for him. Then suddenly $100M of the citizen's money magically appears to invest in Milwaukee, something Walker FAILED to do as the County Exec who closed his own office of Economic Development during the Great Recession! http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/09/scott-walker-using-100-million-of-taxpayer-money-to-fight-off-recall/
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Burlington Area Progressives 2012-05-08 20:46:00

Now GOPocrite Mitt Romney is claimimg credit for saving the auto industry that he said should just go bankrupt. SHEESH!

When he shows up in Wisconsin I'm going to be there with big sign painted like an Etcha-Sketch with flip flops glued all over the screen!

Wait, what's the biggest auto manufacturer in the world today? Oh yeah, General Motors. Thank you President Obama!
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Inventor of Romney-Ryan Budget Concept Says Implementing Premium Support Now Would Be "Rash and Irresponsible"

http://www.politiscoop.com/us-politics/wisconsin-politics/1353-romney-ryan-budget-rash-and-irresponsible.html

MADISON - Noted economist Henry Aaron, a co-creator of the "premium support" concept central to the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan budget plan that would end Medicare as we know it, is now stating that the Romney-Ryan budget "won't work.

As detailed in a new report from The Huffington Post, Aaron testified before the House Ways and Means Committee last week, stating, "I've changed my mind" about the concept of premium support. Aaron also slammed the Romney-Ryan budget for failing to adequately regulate health insurance offerings and how they are sold, stating that the health insurance market under such a plan would be "deplorably inefficient" with serious consequences for the Medicare population.

Aaron however praised President Obama's successful Affordable Care Act for taking steps to preserve Medicare and advocated for the full implementation of the Act as the best way to control rising health care costs.

"Medical professionals, the faith community and now even the inventor of the central concept of the Romney-Ryan budget have come forward to say that this budget that ends Medicare as we know it is wrong for America," Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Mike Tate said Thursday. "As more experts come forward, and people learn the truth about the Romney-Ryan budget, it becomes more clear that this budget is fundamentally flawed, with the potential to cause real harm if implemented."
Read the Huffington Post report here.
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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-05-06

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BAP’s Best Event Ever?

Thank you to everyone who came last night, especially State Assembly Candidates Kelley Albrecht and Kim Peterson!

With the possible exception of the Vets fundraiser we did at Bobby Rockets, last night was the largest event the Burlington Area Progressives has ever been associated with. 180 people packed the Plaza Theater, eclipsing even our events that featured local favorites John Nichols and Ed Garvey by 60 to 80 people! A half dozen representatives of the local Tea Party protested outside.

Thank you all! Keep up the good work especially NOW!

Burlington Standard Press - Liberal group’s film showing spurs talk of theater boycott: http://myracinecounty.com/
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