[From SLUE]:
The most recent Marquette poll showing Walker leading Barrett 50-44 left many scratching their heads.
After all, we are a purple state evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. A closer look at the poll’s crosstabs reveals an overrepresentation of conservatives. Given this skewed polling universe, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the poll showed Walker leading. Also, the survey was limited to likely voters. It discounts the more than 200,000 people who signed the petition to recall Walker that didn’t vote in 2010, a key contingency that could swing the election.
Don’t let the polls fool you. We all know that the election will be a nail-biter decided by 2 points or less. Every vote will count and it is up to us to make sure our friends, families and neighbors get out to vote on June 5 and support Tom Barrett to reclaim Wisconsin.
A closer look at poll is explained in this thorough blog post: http://bdgrdemocracy.
from our friends at the Badger Democracy Blog. Here are some excerpts about the May polling:
* The population models result in suburban Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington counties) being over weighted by about 15%, and the statewide vote being under weighted by as much as 30%. The upstate, non-urban vote is largely under-represented. The highly conservative collar counties of Milwaukee are over-represented.
* The current May poll also results in a 5% higher response from Republican identifying voters, with 5% lower independents. This has not been the case in every Marquette poll. In general, it is fair to say the poll, over the past 5 months, has leaned slightly GOP, with May being an anomaly – for several reasons.
* While every other poll from January-April have adjusted for age, the May poll did not.
* The picture of the respondent that influenced this vote can be seen by the fact that married respondents were over weighted by 6%, while all single groups were under weighted by about 20%.
* The “voter” that influenced this poll was most likely the younger, married, white male that lives in a collar county of Milwaukee – leaning Republican.
The author goes on to remind us that polls give us a picture in time of a group of voters. In random sampling, just as flipping a coin, you can have a period of time when you get five or six “heads” in a row. If you flip the coin enough, the result will “regress to the mean” of about 50%. The May poll is an example of that reality. Taking the last five MU polls into account, and the trend, the picture is clear:
This will be a very close election, decided by two points or less. It is all about turnout. Walker and the GOP are relying on big money and a huge propaganda machine – walking the line of legality. Dems and progressives are relying on grassroots, boots on the ground. If progressives achieve our biggest turnout ever, Walker loses. That is the bottom line.
The path to victory is clear. Get out the vote – every union household, rural, minority, progressive, women, teachers, and democratic voter in the state must get to the polls on June 5th. If that is accomplished – Scott Walker will not be Governor on June 6th
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